Risk warning
Last updated 4 November 2026
Investing in shares puts your money at risk. You could get back less than you put in, and you could lose all of the money in a trade. Past and simulated results are not a reliable guide to future results.
The main risks
- Losses are normal. In the 20-year tests about half the trades lost money. The results came from a few large winners, which look ordinary beforehand and may not come again.
- Big falls happen. In the tests the account at one point lost about half its value (in 2008). Years of nothing, or of losses, are part of the record.
- Stops are not guaranteed. A share can open below your stop-loss, after results or bad news, and fill at a much lower price than the stop. The loss on a trade can then be bigger than planned.
- Few shares, not a fund. Holding five shares at a time is far less spread out than an index fund, so one bad company hurts more.
- Currency. The shares are priced in US dollars. If you invest in pounds, a stronger pound lowers what your shares are worth to you.
- Costs and tax. Dealing fees, spreads, currency charges and tax all reduce returns. The tests include costs as stated on How it works; yours may be higher. Holding shares in an ISA or SIPP can shelter gains from UK tax.
Why simulated results can mislead
- Hindsight. The rules were built and tested on the same history. Rules that look good on the past can stop working.
- Today's list of companies. The tests use today's S&P 500 members, so companies that failed and dropped out are missing. That flatters the results.
- Prices only. The record ignores dividends, on both the rules and the comparisons.
- Short live record. The forward record only began in October 2026. It will take years to show whether the rules work on months nobody had seen.
Only invest money you can afford to lose
Don't invest money you may need soon, money you have borrowed, or money you can't afford to lose. If you are unsure, speak to an independent, FCA-regulated financial adviser. Nothing on this site is advice: see the terms of use.
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